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ERCOT real-time power prices spike above $450/MWh

By: Jeff Zhou |

Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint saw real-time prices jump to three-digit territory as power demand rose above forecast Monday morning amid above-normal temperatures.

Real-time prices spiked across the footprint as real-time prices for all hubs averaged more than $375/MWh for a 15-minute interval ended 9:15 am CDT, before topping $450/MWh for the next interval ended 9:30 am, but have fell to average below $175/MWh for the following interval.

North Hub on-peak real-time futures price for balance-of-the-day traded in the mid-$40s/MWh on Intercontinental Exchange, almost double the prior settlement in the mid-$20s/MWh, while Houston Hub counterpart was valued in the low $60s/MWh.

ERCOT load was around 37.6 GW for the hour ending 9 am, well above the day-ahead forecast near 36.6 GW.

As of 10 am Monday, operating reserve for the grid was seen at around 3.4 GW, only about 1 GW above the emergency level of 2.3 GW the grid operator must hold to response to sudden changes in system conditions.

High temperatures in Houston were forecast in the mid-80s degrees Monday and the low 80s Tuesday, compared with the seasonal norms in the high 70s, according to CustomWeather data.

On the supply side, actual wind generation averaged about 5 GW so far through 8 am Monday, more than 10% below the day-ahead forecast level at over 5.6 GW.

ERCOT expects the peakload to rise from 42.2 GW Monday to 43.4 GW Tuesday, before falling to 37.5 GW Wednesday, 41.2 GW Thursday and rising again to 44.3 GW Friday.