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Market Summary: 11 Nov – 15 Nov 2013

The following is a summary of last week’s market activity and the market outlook:

  • Just two weeks after hitting all-time lows, natural gas contracts saw strong upward swings in response to short-term forecasts showing cold temperatures. The Prompt Month was up 10 cents from its low ($3.37 on Nov. 5), the 12-Month Strip was up 6 cents since its relative low ($3.55 on Nov. 4), and Calendars ’14, ’15 and ’16 were up 1 cent from their Nov. 4 contract lows.
  • Market response to cold weather is especially being felt in the Northeast, where the Algonquin Winter Basis gained $4 in November. Fear of a cold winter, coupled with maintenance on the Algonquin Pipeline, has contributed to the large increase.
  • After this week, forecasts up and through December are calling for temperatures well below-normal for the eastern half of the country.
  • On Thursday, the EIA reported an injection of 20 Bcf for the week ending Nov. 8.  This was slightly below expectations of 23 Bcf, above 2012 (12 Bcf withdrawal) and above the 5-year average of 19 Bcf. End of year storage is expected to be about 3,834 Bcf, which is below the 3,952 Bcf peak we saw in 2012.